What We’ve Learned About Persuasion
Notes on Persuasion launched four months ago as a newsletter that bridges research and practice for campaigners, communicators, and all leaders who use persuasion to shape law and policy.
Notes on Persuasion launched four months ago as a newsletter that bridges research and practice for campaigners, communicators, and all leaders who use persuasion to shape law and policy.
We’ll be back in mid-November with much more. In the meantime, here’s what we’ve covered so far:
Tactics and Strategy:
You Won’t Persuade The Public. Target Elites Instead. Dollars and time could be put to better use by focusing less on persuading mass audiences and more on persuading the people who make policy decisions and shape the media and cultural context in which those decisions are made.
Crafting Your Crisis Communications Playbook. Anticipating and addressing crises often are outside of the experience and skillset of an organization’s leadership. That’s why, to protect your brand—whether as a for-profit or non-profit organization—it’s critical to be prepared with a detailed plan building a team and strategy that can respond effectively in a crisis. To get inspired, here are three different playbooks from three of the country’s top crisis communication professionals.
In Support of Targeting Washington State’s “Nine Supreme Court Justices With An Ad Campaign.” Judges simply are not separate from the political process nor are they out of bounds for targeted persuasion campaigns. Whatever the philosophical value of the contrary view; or, frankly, any harm that the politicization of judges does to the institutional credibility of courts, the bottom line for advocates is that leaving powerful tools on the table—whether those tools are of the “virtual briefing” variety or more traditional communications tactics (e.g. pitching articles to media or placing op-eds)—can put clients and causes at a significant disadvantage.
Microtargeting Works, But Has Diminishing Returns—And Isn’t Always Necessary To Persuade An Audience. A study found that a “microtargeting strategy exceeded the persuasive impact of alternative messaging strategies by an average of 70% or more” averaged across the two issued areas. Importantly, the authors found that almost all of the persuasive effects flowed from single factor targeting (e.g. partisanship—sending one message to Democrats and another to Republicans) and “found no evidence that targeting messages by more covariates amplified [the] persuasive impact[.]”
Everyone Knows That Voters Use Endorsements From Special Interest Groups To Hold Elected Officials Accountable—Except, Maybe They Don’t. While the academic literature “often treats … as a well-established fact” the idea that “uninformed citizens can use ratings and endorsements from [Special Interest Groups] to make inferences about their representatives' actions in office,” this paper finds that in reality only “a very small proportion of citizens do appear to be able to infer the positions of interest groups with names that signal their positions, but such citizens and such groups are rare.”
Choosing The Wrong Slogan Can Decrease Support For A Ballot Measure. Ballot measures often are messaged through slogans that act as framing devices and condense the spirit of the proposed action. Here are two tests—an in-survey randomized controlled trial and a maximum-difference survey—of the relative persuasive effect of five potential slogans of a hypothetical ballot measure that would establish a mobile crisis response team.
How To Mobilize People Around Climate Change. One of the biggest challenges for climate change advocates is that “climate change is a lower priority for Americans than other national issues… while a majority of adults view climate change as a major threat, it is a lower priority than issues such as strengthening the economy and reducing health care costs.” But a new memo provides suggestions for “messaging best practices” including, “leading with values, naming the culprits behind this crisis, and combating cynicism by highlighting past and recent victories.”
Studies Show The Effect Of Elite Messenger Cues On Covid-19 Vaccination. “When medical professionals endorse a vaccine, respondents are eight percentage points more likely to take it compared to a vaccine without endorsement,” making medical experts more influential than political figures, and far more influential than entrepreneurs, entertainers, and athletes. Researchers also found that “elite party cues increase vaccination intentions among Republicans” and that “endorsements from elites of one’s own versus the opposing political party were more persuasive.”
Good Luck Predicting Which Political Ads Will Be Most Persuasive. There is “at best limited evidence” that any of the most “influential theories of advertising effectiveness” taken from “the academic literature on persuasion and the features that advertising practitioners highlight” usefully predict the effectiveness of video advertising in the context of political elections, this new study finds.
“How Sensory Language Shapes Influencer’s Impact.” Companies spent over $16 billion last year alone paying online influencers to share products with their social media followers. In a new study, researchers “examine whether a subtle linguistic shift can shape influencers’ impact by affecting how authentic they seem.” Researchers found that posts “using sensory language” significantly “boosts engagement and willingness to purchase the sponsored product.”
“When The Medium Is The Message.” Researchers found that “compared to traditional media advertising, creative media advertising—which is ‘a specific type of unconventional advertising in which a regular physical object serves as a medium to carry an advertising message’—was found to be “more persuasive than traditional media advertising.”
“Writing For Busy Readers … Communicate More Effectively In The Real World.” Annie Duke, the legendary professional poker player turned cognitive science researcher, interviewed Todd Rogers about his new book on persuasive writing, and spoke about some of the “powerful tools that are backed by a lot of behavioral research on how we write to get through to busy people.”
A New Study Provides A Reminder To Be Aware Of Information-Gaps That An Audience Can Fill-In In Harmful Ways. A new study provides a good reminder to scan for places in your campaign materials, advertisements, or legal briefs where your audience could be forced to fill-in information gaps; and then, where necessary, for you to fill in those gaps for them in a way that’s consistent with your desired outcome. The alternative, which is allowing people to fill-in information gaps on their own, often leads them to do so in ways that aren’t helpful to your cause.
Beautiful Graphs Increase Trust. A new paper finds that “independent of the quality of the underlying data,” beautiful graphs increase trust and even “predict increased citation and comment numbers.”
“Communicators Want To Increase Their Impact[.] Speaking More Slowly Is A Simple Way To Achieve This Goal.” Researchers examining how vocal features influence the impact of social communications found that “speaking more slowly … leads communicators to be perceived more positively.”
“Persuasion Is About Empathy.” Neal Katyal is the former Acting Solicitor General of the United States, co-head of the appellate practice at the international law firm Hogan Lovells, and a professor at Georgetown Law School, credited empathy as his secret weapon for persuasion: “The conventional wisdom is that you speak with confidence. That's how you persuade. I think that's wrong. I think confidence is the enemy of persuasion. Persuasion is about empathy.”
Crime and Safety:
Voters Strongly Favor Community Safety Departments—A Third Public Safety Branch That Sits Alongside Fire and Police Departments. Albuquerque, New Mexico recently launched the nation’s first Community Safety Department, an umbrella department that centralizes the city’s unarmed crisis response programs. A new poll found 75% of voters—including most Republicans and most Democrats—support their city creating a community safety department that would function as a separate and coequal city department alongside the police and fire departments.
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis Removed An Elected Prosecutor From Office. New Polling Shows That Move Might Be Unpopular With Both Republicans and Democrats. The vast majority of voters—including 70% of Republicans—do not believe that “it’s appropriate for the governor to remove an elected prosecutor” either when “the prosecutor has taken political stances that the Governor disagrees with” or “the prosecutor decided not to prosecute certain low level crimes and concentrate resources on pursuing major crimes instead.”
New Polling and Message Testing On Traffic Stops. As part of an ongoing conversation across the country of what a modern public safety infrastructure looks like, one of the big questions that continues to surface is: What role should police departments play when it comes to traffic stops? This new polling and message testing gleans the extent to which the public supports shifting responsibility for certain traffic stops away from police departments.
Voters support zero tolerance policies for police officers who commit domestic violence. Three–in-four voters indicate that domestic violence is either “one of the most serious problems” or a “major problem” facing the country, and likely voters support zero tolerance policies for police officers who commit domestic violence—and these voters want police chiefs and mayors to take action to ensure those zero tolerance policies are put in place.
When It Comes To Discipline For “A Police Officer Who Kills A Family’s Pet,” Most Americans Say The “Most Appropriate Response” Is That The Officer “Should Be Fired.” Most American voters—including a majority of Republicans, Democrats, and Independents—believe that when it comes to discipline for a police officer who kills a family’s pet, the most appropriate response is that the officer should be fired.
Largest Survey Of American Policing Executives Finds Peer-Agency Adoption, But Not Public Opinion, Shapes Support For Civilian Review Boards. Police executives—police chiefs and sheriffs—are among the most influential voices in policy debates around public safety. But little is known about the views of the police executives, or whether those views are malleable. But, in this new preprint paper—the “largest experiment to date of policing executives” and includes “police chiefs and sheriffs collectively serving more than 44 million Americans”—the authors seek “to understand what, if anything, can induce these pivotal actors to support democratic oversight regimes.”
Public Health:
“Do Vaping Prevention Messages Impact Adolescents and Young Adults? A Meta-Analysis of Experimental Studies.” Against the backdrop of this emerging public health crisis, researchers recently published a meta-analysis examining the potential impact of vaping prevention messaging for reducing vaping among teenagers and young adults and found that vaping prevention messages are effective.
How Americans Perceive The Opioid Crisis, Including The Role Of Narcan To Prevent Overdose Deaths. A recent poll illustrates the staggering degree to which the opioid crisis has penetrated the consciousness of everyday people in America: Nearly nine-in-ten Americans are either “very concerned” or “somewhat concerned” about the rising number of deaths from fentanyl. One effective way to prevent overdose deaths is by administering the drug Narcan—a life-saving nasal spray that reverses the effects of an opioid overdose—to someone who is experiencing an overdose. Unlike so many policies where voters are so bitterly divided along partisan lines, support for Narcan enjoys overwhelming bipartisan support: two-thirds of voters—including most Democrats and most Republicans—agreed more with an approach that expands Narcan access.
“At Least Half Are Worried That Someone In Their Family Will Experience A Serious Mental Health Crisis, Substance Abuse.” A new tracking poll captures the anxiety running through American families as the nation’s interrelated drug overdose and mental health crisis loom large: “Half of adults are worried that someone in their family will experience substance use disorder or an addiction to drugs or alcohol…”
“Majorities Of Americans Support Providing All Students Nationwide With Free Breakfast And Free Lunch.” Right now, “soaring food prices are adding strains on families who are seeing reductions in multiple kinds of financial assistance…” Zooming out, “9 million children in the United States are food insecure meaning they lack consistent access to enough food for every person in their family to be healthy. Children in such households are more likely to struggle academically and repeat grade levels, among other challenges, according to researchers.”
Present-Oriented Framing Makes For More Persuasive Public Health Messages. “In health messaging, it is more effective to inform individuals of the immediate outcomes of their health behaviors than inform them of the future consequences.” That’s the main finding of a meta-study on the persuasive effects of temporal framing (e.g. “present-oriented messages vs. future-oriented messages”).
Climate:
Two New Studies From The Yale Program On Climate Change Communication. “A majority of Americans understand that global warming will cause harm…Half or more Americans think global warming will cause either ‘a great deal’ or ‘a moderate amount’ of harm to future generations…”; and “messages about harms of fossil fuels increase support for renewable [energy].”
There’s Broad Support for Renewable Energy. Two-thirds of U.S. adults say both that “the country should prioritize developing renewable energy sources” and the “federal government should encourage production of wind and solar power.”
Partisan Gaps In Climate Change Views Persist. “Democrats have become increasingly likely to agree with the environmental prioritization position… Republicans’ views [, which heavily prioritize energy development,] have stayed roughly constant over the past decade; Democrats have steadily become more concerned about global warming… over the past two decades [while] Republicans’ worry about global warming, in contrast, edged down; Similarly, [as Democrats have become more likely to identify human activity as a main cause of global warming,] Republicans’ views that global warming is the result of human activity dropped…”
“Key Climate Provisions of the Law Enjoy Strong Support Across the Electorate.” A year after the Inflation Reduction Act passed into law, American voters—including majorities of Republicans and Democrats—continue to “broadly support the policies included in this landmark climate legislation, despite having limited awareness of the bill by name.”
The public cares that this is the hottest summer ever recorded. “This summer, record-breaking temperatures stuck out as the story that Americans both knew most about and cared most about…. The more extreme weather affects them, the more Americans seem to notice.”
Reproductive Healthcare:
“Broader Support for Abortion Rights Continues Post-Dobbs.” In the year since the United States Supreme Court issued its Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization ruling, holding that the U.S. Constitution “does not confer a right to abortion” and “the authority to regulate abortion is returned to the people and their elected representatives,” Dobbs has had a sizable and lasting impact on public views of abortion rights. A new 2023 Gallup poll found that even “after rising to new heights last year, Americans’ support for legal abortion remains elevated in several long-term Gallup trends.”
“Two In Three Say Republicans Will Try To Pass A Nationwide Abortion Ban — A Deeply Unpopular Policy.” Though “two in three Americans oppose a nationwide abortion ban,” nearly two-thirds of Americans including almost half of Republicans—say that if Republicans take control of both the White House and Congress in 2024, they believe it is likely that Republicans would pass a nationwide abortion ban.”
Democracy:
“Correcting Misperceptions Of Out-Partisans Decreases American Legislators’ Support For Undemocratic Practices.” Researchers found that “there is a clear benefit from elected officials learning the true attitudes of the other party’s voters so that they hold accurate views … Learning accurate information about out-partisans leads to less undemocratic attitudes among elected officials.”
Economics:
“Moral Reframing Increases Support For Economically Progressive Candidates.” Researchers, drawing upon moral foundations theory, interrogated why “Americans regularly elect politicians who implement policies that increase economic inequality” even though “large majorities of Americans view economic inequality in the United States as excessive, indicating they prefer a more egalitarian society.”
“How To Overcome Public Resistance To A Cash Transfer Policy.” Researchers found that providing “a one-time unconditional $7,500 cash transfer to individuals experiencing homelessness, reduced homelessness and generated net societal savings over [a one year period].” Importantly, the authors found “a mistrust in the public toward these [unhoused] individuals in their ability to manage money” and helped overcome that barrier by using “constructive messaging to improve public support for a cash transfer policy by highlighting the benefits of the cash transfer to the recipients themselves and society.”
Immigration:
The Follow The Leader Effect. According to a new working paper, “party members will follow their leader and update their [immigration] policy views when presented with new and surprising information from a leader that they support.”
Misinformation:
“Attempts To Debunk Science-Relevant Misinformation” Are “On Average, Not Successful.” The authors examined more than 70 experiments that “either assessed belief in misinformation about science or introduced misinformation about science as accurate and then introduced corrections for the misinformation … [Unfortunately], on average the corrections failed to accomplish their objectives[.]
“Debunking Misinformation About Consumer Products: Effects on Beliefs and Purchase Behavior.” Fact-correcting misinformation about consumer products can be effective. Nonetheless, firms often view the more effective strategy to be introducing a new product that conforms to the misinformation.
Artificial Intelligence / Technology:
Can AI Write Persuasive Propaganda? Researchers say “GPT-3-generated content could blend into online information environments on par with content sourced from existing foreign covert propaganda campaigns.”
Using Chat GPT-4 For Microtargeting Political Messages Doesn’t Work (At Least, Not Yet). The true promise—or nightmare—of political microtargeting is in the ability of generative AI to draw upon individualized social, economic, demographic, and psychographic factors to quickly, accurately, and at virtually no cost produce political messages that are more persuasive because they are so highly tailored. That time hasn’t arrived yet, according to the results of a new study that found “political microtargeting does not increase the persuasive impact of LLM-generated messages relative to a generic ‘best message’”.
New Study Finds Public Support For More Equitable Algorithms. Should ads be optimized for efficiency—increasing the total number of program participants regardless of the resulting demographics of program participants? Or should efficiency goals be relaxed to some degree to promote equity? In a new paper, researchers found that “respondents generally preferred reducing total enrollments to facilitate increased enrollment of Spanish speakers… [and] found a majority of respondents in each subgroup preferred sacrificing at least some efficiency to reach more Spanish speakers [i.e. equity].”
New empirical research or polling you’re working on, or know of, that’s interesting? We’d love to hear from you! Please send ideas to hi@notesonpersuasion.com.